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Monthly Archives: November 2011
Weekly comment
In a world devoid of ‘collateralizable’ assets, there remains one that seems to still be attracting some buyers……….US Treasury issued debt. Is there enough of it on offer to satisfy the demand for the least risky asset? Some say there … Continue reading
Australians are complacent…not me
Jim Chanos, founder of hedge fund Kynikos Associates, talks about China’s banking system and outlook for the nation’s economy and real estate market. Kynikos is short Chinese stocks and stocks that benefit from China like our resource companies…. Chanos is … Continue reading
Back to the future….
This morning our colleague Renny Ellis has some interesting thoughts on European banking problems…..which have some eerie similarities to 2008 Over recent days there has been a growing conversation of concern over the major Euro banks. The ECB emergency lending window … Continue reading
Impossible to measure risk….
Today’s market thought’s come from our guest blogger and colleague Renny Ellis…. “The volatility in the markets this week is very much as expected. At the start of October when I pointed out that a sharp ‘short covering’ rally was … Continue reading
A positive view..
Hamish Douglass appeared on last Sunday’s edition of Inside Business offering an update on how he sees the European economic scenario possibly playing out. Whilst he makes the point that he does not believe Europe is heading for a financial and … Continue reading
Superannuation – the “Withdrawal and Re-contribution” strategy demystified
Most superannuation (and super pension) balances consist of both a Tax Free and Taxable component. For example, a member with $1M in superannuation may have their balance divided as follows:
Posted in Superanuation & Retirement Planning
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Random thoughts….
A few interesting subjects caught my attention during the week… 1. Paulson & Co., the U.S. hedge fund run by John Paulson, cut its stake in the SPDR Gold Trust, an exchange-traded fund backed by the precious metal, during the third … Continue reading
Week ahead – US economic data
US markets are closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving The key data this week will be the Durable goods number even though market commentators may choose to focus on the Jobless claims or consumer spending numbers. There is an expectation building … Continue reading
Equity market seasonality…
The following chart courtesy of www.cxoadvisory.com shows the average year-to-date percentage change in the S&P 500 Index for the entire calendar year since 1950, for 1950-1989 and since 1990. The year consists of trading days 0-252, with day 0 representing … Continue reading
Resources – all about China….
Quite understandably, memories of late 2008 are looming large in the minds of investors and analysts alike. There is no escaping the fact that the economic recovery in Europe and North America has stalled, and that the outlook for raw … Continue reading
Posted in Commodities, Equities
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Telstra (TLS $3.14)
Interesting table from some recent Macquarie research on the Telstra-NBN deal….admittedly we have been quite positive on TLS for a while ….not only for its defensive qualities and fully franked yield but because we thought the board could strike a good … Continue reading
Posted in Equities
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“10 Market Rules to Remember”
Bob Farrell was a legend at Merrill Lynch & Co for several decades. Farrell had a front-row seat to the go-go markets of the late 1960s, mid-1980s and late 1990s, the brutal bear market of 1973-74, and October 1987′s crash. … Continue reading
Woolworths Note II – new issue ($100.00)
The new Woolworths Notes II expands the universe of quality listed hybrids available to investors in Australia. The sector continues to be dominated by the major banks and other financials. With Orica Prefs (ORIPB) and Sydney Airport Skies (SAKHA) both … Continue reading
Posted in Equities
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Can Italy save itself?
This morning Barclays Capital makes some sobering points about the developments in Italy … “The ongoing debt crisis in Greece is a legitimate concern for policymakers and investors, but growing concerns about Italy pose the real danger to Europe and … Continue reading
Posted in Markets
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“The Seven Immutable Laws of investing”
James Montier, a long-time favorite of mine, produced a white paper entitled “The Seven Immutable Laws of investing”. In the paper, the GMO strategist presents a set of principles to guide sensible investment that I thought appropriate to revisit at this … Continue reading
Posted in Investing
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October rally – bears are mauled
Most investment managers and Hedge funds have retained very defensive positions over recent months as markets continued the weaker trend. After 6 straight losing months (see table above) where the ASX 200 fell around 18%, a technical rebound was likely. … Continue reading
Posted in Markets
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